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Solar Cycle Forecasting

Solar Cycle Forecasting

Solar Cycle Forecasting

September 2, 2008 ClickSoftware 0 Comments

For both the energy and telecommunications industries, any information that would help predict the dynamic work they do is of value to the forecasting and planning groups.

Last year I came upon this article which explained that for the first time, NCAR (the National Center for Atmospheric Research), believes that they can predict cycles of sun storms years in advance. The forecasting model was 98% accurate in simulating the last eight solar cycles.

I recently led a forecasting and planning workshop with an energy utility and thought of this article and how the sun storm predictions could be used to build this particular utility’s forecasted demand. Much like how they use weather predictions to forecast the demands from forest fires or the rain storms during an El Niño year.

As I reread the article, I realized that the forecasting process that the NCAR scientists are using to predict the solar cycles is similar to the mathematical approach to forecasting and planning in our own solutions. By taking the historical data and applying a formulated approach and then analyzing the results in order to account for anomalies, the efficiency and effectiveness of the forecasting process is vastly improved.

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